305 
WTNT35 KNHC 180231
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

...ERNESTO RACING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SATURDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...50.4N 25.6W
ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM N OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 50.4 North, longitude 25.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the
forecast track the post-tropical cyclone and its remnants will move
across Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Ernesto is expected to become post-tropical overnight, and slight
weakening is forecast to occur Saturday while Ernesto merges with a
frontal zone by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly to the south and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be
found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the
United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office
at www.metoffice.gov/uk.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

304 
WTNT25 KNHC 180231
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018
0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.4N  25.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 150SE 130SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 300SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.4N  25.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 49.8N  27.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 52.3N  18.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 150SE 130SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 54.1N  10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 150SE 130SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 50.4N  25.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

221 
WTNT45 KNHC 180232
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

Organized deep convection associated with Ernesto has dissipated
after the issuance of the last advisory. If it does not return,
which seems unlikely with the system moving over SSTs of 16C or
less, Ernesto should become a post-tropical cyclone by early
Saturday.

Geostationary and microwave imagery along with ASCAT data indicate
that the mid-level circulation has begun to separate from the
low-level center. A partial ASCAT-A pass from 2148 UTC showed a
large area of 35-40 kt winds south and southeast of the center, and
on that basis the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Ernesto is
forecast to weaken only a little during the next 24 hours while it
approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone Saturday night.
The post-tropical cyclone's circulation should dissipate while it
moves across Ireland and portions of the United Kingdom by early
Sunday.

Ernesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt and this motion
should continue until dissipation. The new NHC forecast is close to
the previous one and lies near the middle of the tightly clustered
guidance envelope.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread
gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the
United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on
rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products
issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in
products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at
www.metoffice.gov/uk.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 50.4N  25.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 52.3N  18.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  19/0000Z 54.1N  10.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

861 
WTPZ34 KNHC 180233
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

...LANE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 135.6W
ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1855 MI...2985 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located near
latitude 11.8 North, longitude 135.6 West.  Lane is moving toward
the west near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A motion between west and
west-northwest is expected during the entire forecast period, and
Lane is forecast to cross into the central Pacific basin on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Lane is now a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional strengthening is
expected during the next 12 hours or so, and Lane could become a
category 4 hurricane tonight or Saturday.  After that, some
fluctuations in intensity are expected Saturday night and Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

860 
WTPZ24 KNHC 180233
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142018
0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 135.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 135.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 134.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.2N 137.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.4N 142.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.9N 145.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.5N 149.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 15.0N 152.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 15.5N 156.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 135.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 

678 
WTPZ44 KNHC 180234
TCDEP4

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Lane has continued to rapidly intensify during the past several
hours, with the eye gradually becoming better defined and the
central dense overcast surrounding the eye becoming larger.
Satellite intensity estimates have increased to a range of 100-115
kt, and based on this the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt
in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus technique.
The hurricane currently has good outflow in all directions and
there is a large area of outer banding, primarily in the
southeastern semicircle.

The first portion of the intensity forecast is a bit problematic.
With the exception of the HMON model, none of the intensity
guidance shows much additional strengthening.  However, except for
the possibility of some dry air wrapping around the west side of
the central convection, there is no apparent reason why the current
rapid intensification should stop that quickly.  The intensity
forecast will show 12 h more of rapid intensification, followed by
a period of little change from 12-48 h.  This portion of the
intensity forecast lies above all of the guidance.  After 48 h,
Lane should start to encounter westerly shear, which should
increase by the end of the forecast period and cause the cyclone to
steadily weaken.  This portion of the intensity forecast lies near
or a little above the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is 280/14.  Lane is forecast to move south of a
subtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward
direction over the next 5 days, with some decrease in forward speed
by 72-120 h as the ridge weakens slightly.  There is some spread in
the guidance by 120 h, with the GFS and the NAVGEM models on the
north side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF model and UKMET
Ensemble mean on the south side.  As in the previous advisory,
little change was made to the forecast track which lies close to
the center of the guidance envelope and the consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 11.8N 135.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 12.2N 137.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 13.4N 142.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 13.9N 145.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 14.5N 149.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 15.0N 152.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 15.5N 156.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven