Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 232351
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of cloudiness and showers over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean is associated with a surface trough.  This trough is
expected to move slowly northward over the next few days into an
area where environmental conditions are forecast to be more
conducive for development. A tropical or subtropical depression
could form over the weekend while the system turns westward well to
the northeast of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 24 Oct 2018 03:21:58 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232330
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 23 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Willa, located close to the coast of west-central Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Summary for Hurricane Willa (EP4/EP242018)

...EYE OF WILLA MOVING FARTHER INLAND TOWARD DURANGO... ...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON...
 As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 23
 the center of Willa was located near 23.2, -105.5
 with movement NE at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 970 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane Willa Public Advisory Number 16

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 240230
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA MOVING FARTHER INLAND TOWARD DURANGO...
...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 105.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for
Las Islas Marias.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
inland Mexico near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 105.5 West. Willa
is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours.  The
forecast track will continue to bring Wilma farther inland over
western Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Very rapid weakening is forecast during the
next 12 hours, and Willa is expected to dissipate on Wednesday

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is still occurring
along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern
Sinaloa and Nayarit. Near the coast, the surge is accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico.  This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue within the hurricane
warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening but
will gradually begin to subside early Wednesday.  Tropical storm
conditions will continue along the coast of mainland Mexico within
the warning area through tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Hurricane Willa Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 24 2018  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 240230
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018
0300 UTC WED OCT 24 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
LAS ISLAS MARIAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 105.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 105.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.0N 103.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 105.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 240231
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Satellite images indicate that at 0100 UTC, the eye of Willa crossed
the coast of Mexico near Isla del Bosque, Sinaloa about 50 miles
(80 km) southeast of Mazatlan.  Willa made landfall as a Category 3
hurricane with estimated sustained winds of 105 kt.  The hurricane
is already inland and still has an eye feature surrounded by a ring
of very deep convection. However, the eye is beginning to gradually
fade on satellite. The winds are probably already lower, and the
initial intensity is set at 100 kt.  Willa is forecast to move
farther inland over the high mountains of western Mexico resulting
in rapid weakening. It is anticipated that by tomorrow, the cyclone
will no longer have a low-level circulation and dissipate.

Satellite fixes indicate that the eye has been moving toward the
northeast a little faster, about 15 kt.  The hurricane is well
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow pattern
should steer the cyclone on this general track with an increase in
forward speed until dissipation over western Mexico tomorrow.

Key Messages:

1.  Life-threatening storm surge is still occurring along the coasts
of southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and
southwestern Mexico near the path of Willa.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds should
continue within the hurricane warning area during the next several
hours and continue to spread inland across the mountainous areas of
west-central Mexico.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 23.2N 105.5W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
 12H  24/1200Z 25.0N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

Hurricane Willa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 24 2018

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 240231
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE WILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018               
0300 UTC WED OCT 24 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MAZATLAN       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAN BLAS       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

Hurricane Willa Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Oct 2018 02:32:53 GMT



 
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Oct 2018 03:21:49 GMT