Tropical Sea Temperatures
Current Atlantic Satellite Loop
Current Pacific Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 192319
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Harvey, located over the central
Caribbean Sea.
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized near a trough of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of the northern
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for development of this system during the next couple of
days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Conditions
could become slightly more conducive for development once the system
is near the northern Bahamas or Florida around the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
A tropical wave located about a thousand miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing a large area of cloudiness but limited
showers and thunderstorms. The wave is currently embedded in a
dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too
strong to support development in a couple of days. Therefore,
tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Summary for Tropical Depression Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 19
the center of Harvey was located near 14.1, -70.0
with movement W at 22 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Harvey Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017
000
WTNT34 KNHC 192033
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017
...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 70.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF CURACAO
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern
Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey. Watches may be
required for portions of these areas tonight.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 70.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the
central and western Caribbean Sea through Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible during the next couple of days,
and Harvey could regain tropical storm status Sunday or Sunday
night.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
000
WTNT24 KNHC 192033
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 70.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 70.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.0W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 40SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 70.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017
000
WTNT44 KNHC 192034
TCDAT4
Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017
The cloud pattern of Harvey has continued to decay during the day,
at least in part due to 15-20 kt of northerly shear. The convective
area near the center is neither very concentrated or curved, and
overall the pattern more resembles that of an open wave than a
tropical cyclone. Based on the decay and data from the aircraft
mission this morning, the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical
depression. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
will investigate the system this evening to see if the circulation
still exists.
The intensity forecast is problematic. The current shear should
subside over the next 24 h, and the statistical guidance responds
to this by forecasting significant strengthening. On the other
hand, the structure of the cyclone has decayed to the point where
it may not be able to take advantage of the better environment, as
suggested by the ECMWF and GFS. The intensity forecast follows the
trend of the previous forecast, albeit with lower intensities, in
showing gradual strengthening until landfall in Belize or Yucatan.
However, an alternative forecast scenario is that the system
degenerates to an open wave and is unable to regenerate during the
next 72 h.
The initial motion remains 275/19. There is no change in the
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only
minor tweaks to the forecast track. A low- to mid-level ridge
extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey, or its
remnants, on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the
next 36 h. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north
of Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in
water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should
cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward
speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Harvey
should pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then
cross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.
A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of the
northern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua tonight. At
the present time, there is enough uncertainty about whether Harvey
will actually be a tropical storm in 48 h that a watch is not
warranted.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 14.1N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
000
FONT14 KNHC 192033
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 2(24) X(24)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) X(26) X(26)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Harvey Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 20:39:38 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 21:24:04 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192311
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kenneth, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
...KENNETH IS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...
As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 19
the center of Kenneth was located near 15.9, -123.8
with movement WNW at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 192034
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017
...KENNETH IS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 123.8W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 123.8 West. Kenneth is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A
slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected over the next
couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Kenneth is forecast to become a hurricane tonight.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 6
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
000
WTPZ23 KNHC 192034
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.9W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.5N 125.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.1N 130.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.1N 131.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.8N 133.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.4N 134.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.1N 135.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 123.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 192035
TCDEP3
Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017
Kenneth is on a strengthening trend. The cloud pattern of the
tropical storm consists of a central dense overcast and curved outer
bands, mostly on the south and west portions of the circulation. A
partial SSMI/S overpass around 1500 UTC shows a mid-level eye
feature, but it also indicated that the system is still vertically
tilted from northeast to southwest, likely the result of
northeasterly shear. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB
and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are
unanimously 3.5/55 kt, and the initial wind speed is increased to
that value.
Kenneth is moving west-northwestward at 16 kt on the south
side of a narrow mid-level ridge. A decrease in forward speed and a
turn to the northwest is expected during the next 2 to 3 days
while the storm moves toward the southwestern periphery of the
ridge. Thereafter, an even slower motion toward the north-northwest
is forecast as Kenneth moves into a break in the ridge caused by a
large-scale trough off of the west coast of the United States. The
track models have shifted a little to the south and west this cycle,
and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in those directions.
The environmental conditions appear generally favorable for Kenneth
to keep strengthening during the next 36 hours or so, and the system
is forecast to become a hurricane as early as tonight. After
that time, SSTs fall below 26 deg C along the expected path of
Kenneth, and these cool waters combined with a drier air mass should
end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening. An
increase in south-southwesterly shear in 4 to 5 days will also aid
in the weakening process. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than
the previous one and is in best agreement with the IVCN and HCCA
consensus models. This forecast also calls for Kenneth to become a
post-tropical cyclone by the end of the period when it will be over
SSTs near 22 deg C.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 15.9N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 16.5N 125.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 18.1N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 19.1N 131.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 21.8N 133.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 24.4N 134.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 27.1N 135.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 192034
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 125W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 24(49) 4(53) X(53) X(53)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 24(29) 3(32) X(32)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 5(33)
25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
25N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 20:40:37 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 21:30:48 GMT
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 192319 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Harvey, located over the central Caribbean Sea. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized near a trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Conditions could become slightly more conducive for development once the system is near the northern Bahamas or Florida around the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located about a thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of cloudiness but limited showers and thunderstorms. The wave is currently embedded in a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too strong to support development in a couple of days. Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
Summary for Tropical Depression Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Harvey was located near 14.1, -70.0 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Harvey Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017000 WTNT34 KNHC 192033 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 ...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 70.0W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF CURACAO ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey. Watches may be required for portions of these areas tonight. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 70.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the central and western Caribbean Sea through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, and Harvey could regain tropical storm status Sunday or Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017000 WTNT24 KNHC 192033 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 70.0W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 70.0W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 70.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017000 WTNT44 KNHC 192034 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 The cloud pattern of Harvey has continued to decay during the day, at least in part due to 15-20 kt of northerly shear. The convective area near the center is neither very concentrated or curved, and overall the pattern more resembles that of an open wave than a tropical cyclone. Based on the decay and data from the aircraft mission this morning, the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical depression. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the system this evening to see if the circulation still exists. The intensity forecast is problematic. The current shear should subside over the next 24 h, and the statistical guidance responds to this by forecasting significant strengthening. On the other hand, the structure of the cyclone has decayed to the point where it may not be able to take advantage of the better environment, as suggested by the ECMWF and GFS. The intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast, albeit with lower intensities, in showing gradual strengthening until landfall in Belize or Yucatan. However, an alternative forecast scenario is that the system degenerates to an open wave and is unable to regenerate during the next 72 h. The initial motion remains 275/19. There is no change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only minor tweaks to the forecast track. A low- to mid-level ridge extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey, or its remnants, on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 36 h. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north of Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Harvey should pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then cross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of the northern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua tonight. At the present time, there is enough uncertainty about whether Harvey will actually be a tropical storm in 48 h that a watch is not warranted. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 14.1N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
000
FONT14 KNHC 192033
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 2(24) X(24)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) X(26) X(26)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Harvey Graphics
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192311
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kenneth, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
...KENNETH IS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...
As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 19
the center of Kenneth was located near 15.9, -123.8
with movement WNW at 18 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 192034
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017
...KENNETH IS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 123.8W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 123.8 West. Kenneth is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A
slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected over the next
couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and
Kenneth is forecast to become a hurricane tonight.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 6
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
000
WTPZ23 KNHC 192034
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.9W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.5N 125.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.1N 130.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.1N 131.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.8N 133.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.4N 134.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.1N 135.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 123.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 192035
TCDEP3
Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017
Kenneth is on a strengthening trend. The cloud pattern of the
tropical storm consists of a central dense overcast and curved outer
bands, mostly on the south and west portions of the circulation. A
partial SSMI/S overpass around 1500 UTC shows a mid-level eye
feature, but it also indicated that the system is still vertically
tilted from northeast to southwest, likely the result of
northeasterly shear. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB
and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are
unanimously 3.5/55 kt, and the initial wind speed is increased to
that value.
Kenneth is moving west-northwestward at 16 kt on the south
side of a narrow mid-level ridge. A decrease in forward speed and a
turn to the northwest is expected during the next 2 to 3 days
while the storm moves toward the southwestern periphery of the
ridge. Thereafter, an even slower motion toward the north-northwest
is forecast as Kenneth moves into a break in the ridge caused by a
large-scale trough off of the west coast of the United States. The
track models have shifted a little to the south and west this cycle,
and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in those directions.
The environmental conditions appear generally favorable for Kenneth
to keep strengthening during the next 36 hours or so, and the system
is forecast to become a hurricane as early as tonight. After
that time, SSTs fall below 26 deg C along the expected path of
Kenneth, and these cool waters combined with a drier air mass should
end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening. An
increase in south-southwesterly shear in 4 to 5 days will also aid
in the weakening process. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than
the previous one and is in best agreement with the IVCN and HCCA
consensus models. This forecast also calls for Kenneth to become a
post-tropical cyclone by the end of the period when it will be over
SSTs near 22 deg C.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 15.9N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 16.5N 125.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 18.1N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 19.1N 131.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 21.8N 133.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 24.4N 134.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 27.1N 135.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 192034
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 125W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 24(49) 4(53) X(53) X(53)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 24(29) 3(32) X(32)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 5(33)
25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
25N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 20:40:37 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 21:30:48 GMT
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 192311 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kenneth, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
...KENNETH IS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.9, -123.8 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017000 WTPZ33 KNHC 192034 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 ...KENNETH IS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 123.8W ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 123.8 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Kenneth is forecast to become a hurricane tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 6
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017000 WTPZ23 KNHC 192034 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.8W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.8W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.5N 125.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.1N 130.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.1N 131.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.8N 133.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.4N 134.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.1N 135.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 123.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192035 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Kenneth is on a strengthening trend. The cloud pattern of the tropical storm consists of a central dense overcast and curved outer bands, mostly on the south and west portions of the circulation. A partial SSMI/S overpass around 1500 UTC shows a mid-level eye feature, but it also indicated that the system is still vertically tilted from northeast to southwest, likely the result of northeasterly shear. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are unanimously 3.5/55 kt, and the initial wind speed is increased to that value. Kenneth is moving west-northwestward at 16 kt on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest is expected during the next 2 to 3 days while the storm moves toward the southwestern periphery of the ridge. Thereafter, an even slower motion toward the north-northwest is forecast as Kenneth moves into a break in the ridge caused by a large-scale trough off of the west coast of the United States. The track models have shifted a little to the south and west this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in those directions. The environmental conditions appear generally favorable for Kenneth to keep strengthening during the next 36 hours or so, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane as early as tonight. After that time, SSTs fall below 26 deg C along the expected path of Kenneth, and these cool waters combined with a drier air mass should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening. An increase in south-southwesterly shear in 4 to 5 days will also aid in the weakening process. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and is in best agreement with the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. This forecast also calls for Kenneth to become a post-tropical cyclone by the end of the period when it will be over SSTs near 22 deg C. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 15.9N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 16.5N 125.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 18.1N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 19.1N 131.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 21.8N 133.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 24.4N 134.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 27.1N 135.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 192034
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 125W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 24(49) 4(53) X(53) X(53)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 24(29) 3(32) X(32)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 5(33)
25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
25N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics