Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220542
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that the area of low
pressure located just north of Tobago in the Windward Islands is
becoming better organized and is producing winds to near tropical
storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further
development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form
while it moves west-northwestward and then northwestward at 10 to 15
mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.  Heavy rainfall and strong
gusty winds are likely over much of the Leeward and Windward Islands
during the next couple of days and will spread across Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday.  Interests across
the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this low, and
tropical storm watches and warnings will likely be required for
portions of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico later today. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A strong tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is already
producing thunderstorm activity that is showing some signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form on Monday or Tuesday while it moves westward to west-
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Further information on the system near the Windward Islands can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake

Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 21
 the center of Jerry was located near 24.1, -66.3
 with movement NW at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 19

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 220237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 66.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 66.3 West.  Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A turn toward
the north-northwest and north is expected Sunday and Monday,
followed by a turn toward the northeast late Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next
several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 19

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 220237
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N  66.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N  66.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N  66.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.4N  67.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.7N  67.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 28.0N  68.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N  68.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.6N  66.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  70SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 36.8N  60.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 40.8N  54.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N  66.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 19

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 220239
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

Jerry's center is still exposed to the northwest of the bulk of the
deep convection, although a new burst of thunderstorms is just now
developing just to the southeast of the center.  With no
significant change to the storm's structure, the initial intensity
is held at 55 kt, which matches a blend of final-T and CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB.  UW-CIMSS is depicting 15-20 kt of westerly
shear over Jerry at the moment, although the analysis suggests that
the cyclone could sneak into a slightly lower-shear environment
during the next 12-24 hours.  After that time, however, Jerry is
expected to interact with a mid- to upper-level trough, putting the
system under counterbalancing influences of strong shear but
stronger divergence aloft.  Because of these conditions, only small
fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 4 days or
so.  Jerry will be bumping up against a baroclinic zone while
interacting with the trough, and it's likely that extratropical
transition will at least commence while this system is over the
western Atlantic.  At this point, however, that transition is not
expected to be complete before the end of the 5-day forecast period.

The initial motion is northwestward, or 325/13 kt.  Jerry is still
expected to continue recurving around the subtropical ridge,
interact with the western Atlantic trough in about 48 hours, and
then become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies from day 3
onward.  Except for a slight westward kink in the track between
48-72, resulting from Jerry's expected interaction with the trough,
little change in the NHC track forecast was required from the
previous one.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday.
It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on
Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 24.1N  66.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 25.4N  67.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 26.7N  67.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 28.0N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 29.4N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 32.6N  66.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 36.8N  60.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 40.8N  54.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

000
FONT15 KNHC 220237
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  37(45)  11(56)   X(56)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   6(18)   X(18)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:40:09 GMT



 
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 03:24:52 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220511
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lorena, located over the central Gulf of California, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

...KIKO STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
 As of 5:00 PM HST Sat Sep 21
 the center of Kiko was located near 17.5, -132.5
 with movement WSW at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 39

Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 220238
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
500 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019

...KIKO STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 132.5W
ABOUT 1510 MI...2430 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 132.5 West.  Kiko is
moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A motion
toward the southwest or west-southwest is forecast to occur through
Sunday night, followed by a westward to northwestward motion Monday
and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next several
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 39

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220237
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.5W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  15SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.5W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 132.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.8N 133.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.0N 134.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.8N 135.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.8N 138.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 139.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.1N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 132.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 39

Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 220241
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
500 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019

Kiko is only producing a relatively small patch of deep convection
to the northeast of its center, the result of continued
southwesterly shear and the cyclone moving through what appears to
be a stable environment.  The initial intensity is held at 45 kt
based on the earlier ASCAT data, but it's possible the maximum
winds have decreased since then.  Given Kiko's structure and its
environment, some weakening is expected during the next day or so.
However, the cyclone is moving southwestward, toward slightly
warmer waters, and this could allow for some restrengthening in
36-48 hours, which is shown by many of the intensity models.
Another round of shear and cooler waters should lead to weakening
after 48 hours, and Kiko is expected to degenerate into a remnant
low by day 5, if not sooner.

Kiko is moving a little faster toward the west-southwest, or 240/7
kt.  An elongated mid- to upper-level trough extending from
California to near the Hawaiian Islands is digging southward, which
is forcing the subtropical ridge--and Kiko--to lose latitude during
the next 36 hours.  After that time, the western portion of the
trough is forecast to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing
Kiko to turn sharply northwestward on days 2-4.  Once a remnant low,
Kiko is then expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it
to turn back to the southwest.  Only small adjustments to the NHC
track forecast were made on this cycle, and it still depicts a
wave-like trajectory through day 5, as has been the case for
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 17.5N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 16.8N 133.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 16.0N 134.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 15.8N 135.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 16.5N 136.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 18.8N 138.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 19.2N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 18.1N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 220238
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  39             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 135W       34  X  10(10)  24(34)   3(37)   1(38)   X(38)   1(39)
15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
15N 135W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
20N 135W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   1(11)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  10(22)   2(24)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:39:52 GMT



 
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 03:31:37 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)

...MARIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
 As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 21
 the center of Mario was located near 20.3, -110.8
 with movement N at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 19

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 220253
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...MARIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...

SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 110.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Mario.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 110.8 West. Mario is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward the
northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
later tonight or on Sunday.  Mario is then forecast to continue on
that heading through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional gradual weakening is anticipated, and
Mario is expected to become a remnant low by Monday, if not sooner.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 19

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 220253
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 110.8W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 110.8W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 111.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.7N 112.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.1N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.3N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 110.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 

Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 19

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 220254
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Mario has been a swirl of low clouds devoid of convection since the
last advisory.  The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based
mainly on subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB, and passive microwave winds from the WindSat suggests the
possibility this is a bit generous.

While Mario remains in an area of strong easterly vertical shear,
it is still over warm sea surface temperatures and in a relatively
moist air mass.  Thus, the lack of convection is a little
surprising.  The intensity forecast will show little change in
strength during the next 12 h in anticipation of a convective burst
developing near the center during the diurnal maximum.  After that
time, dry air entrainment and movement over cooler waters should
inhibit the development of convection, and the cyclone is forecast
to decay into a remnant low by 36 h, if not sooner.  The new
intensity forecast is again mainly an update of the previous
forecast.

Mario is now moving a little faster with an initial motion of 350/6
kt.  The track guidance is in good agreement on a north-
northwestward to northwestward motion through about 48 h, followed
by a more northward motion near the 72 h point.  Once again, little
change was made to the forecast track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 20.3N 110.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 21.3N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 22.7N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 24.1N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0000Z 25.3N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 220253
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
20N 110W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
25N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Tropical Storm Mario Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:55:09 GMT



 
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 03:38:04 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)

...POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF LORENA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SOON...
 As of 12:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22
 the center of Lorena was located near 27.9, -111.1
 with movement N at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 19A

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 220541
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1200 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF LORENA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 111.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...28 KM W OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
should monitor the progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 111.1 West. Lorena is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (16 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours.
On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to cross
the coast of mainland Mexico during the next couple of hours,
followed by a motion across northwestern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall.
After landfall, Lorena is expected to rapidly weaken, and the system
is forecast to dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning,
if not sooner.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical-storm conditions are likely occurring in the
tropical storm warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over central Sonora, and additional rainfall of less
than one inch over Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall
may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions
of the western coast of Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 19

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019  

169 
WTPZ25 KNHC 220236
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 111.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 111.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 111.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.9N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 111.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 22/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 

Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 19

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 220236
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Recent SSMI/S and WindSat microwave overpasses helped locate the
center of Lorena, which was hidden under a band of cirrus clouds,
over the Gulf of California southwest of Guymas.  The system was
devoid of convection for several hours.  However, a new burst of
convection has recently formed just northeast of the center.  There
is little data near the central core, so the initial intensity is
set at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory.
Lorena should make landfall over northwestern Mexico during the
next several hours, then rapidly weaken over the mountainous
terrain and dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning.

The microwave data indicate that Lorena is continuing to move just
west of due north or 355/10 kt.  A general northward or perhaps
north-northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone
dissipates, and the new forecast track is changed little from the
previous advisory track.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena may produce dangerous flash flooding in Sonora Saturday
night and Sunday. Moisture associated with Lorena may also result in
locally heavy rain over parts of Arizona early in the week. There is
a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over central Arizona on Monday.

2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over
portions of the tropical storm warning area during the next several
hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 27.6N 111.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 29.0N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  23/0000Z 30.9N 112.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

476 
FOPZ15 KNHC 220236
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HERMOSILLO     34  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
BAHIA KINO     34 19   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
GUAYMAS        34 64   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 05:45:34 GMT



 
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 03:44:31 GMT