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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192319
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Harvey, located over the central
Caribbean Sea.

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized near a trough of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of the northern
Leeward Islands.  Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for development of this system during the next couple of
days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  Conditions
could become slightly more conducive for development once the system
is near the northern Bahamas or Florida around the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about a thousand miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing a large area of cloudiness but limited
showers and thunderstorms.  The wave is currently embedded in a
dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too
strong to support development in a couple of days.  Therefore,
tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Summary for Tropical Depression Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
 As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 19
 the center of Harvey was located near 14.1, -70.0
 with movement W at 22 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Harvey Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 192033
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 70.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF CURACAO
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern
Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey.  Watches may be
required for portions of these areas tonight.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 70.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Sunday.  A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the
central and western Caribbean Sea through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible during the next couple of days,
and Harvey could regain tropical storm status Sunday or Sunday
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 192033
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY.  WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  70.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  70.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  69.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.3N  73.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.6N  77.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N  80.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N  83.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N  89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  30SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N  92.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.5N  94.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N  70.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 192034
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

The cloud pattern of Harvey has continued to decay during the day,
at least in part due to 15-20 kt of northerly shear.  The convective
area near the center is neither very concentrated or curved, and
overall the pattern more resembles that of an open wave than a
tropical cyclone.  Based on the decay and data from the aircraft
mission this morning, the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical
depression.  Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
will investigate the system this evening to see if the circulation
still exists.

The intensity forecast is problematic.  The current shear should
subside over the next 24 h, and the statistical guidance responds
to this by forecasting significant strengthening.  On the other
hand, the structure of the cyclone has decayed to the point where
it may not be able to take advantage of the better environment, as
suggested by the ECMWF and GFS. The intensity forecast follows the
trend of the previous forecast, albeit with lower intensities, in
showing gradual strengthening until landfall in Belize or Yucatan.
However, an alternative forecast scenario is that the system
degenerates to an open wave and is unable to regenerate during the
next 72 h.

The initial motion remains 275/19.  There is no change in the
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only
minor tweaks to the forecast track.   A low- to mid-level ridge
extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey, or its
remnants, on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the
next 36 h. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north
of Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in
water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico.  This pattern should
cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward
speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Harvey
should pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then
cross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.

A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of the
northern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua tonight.  At
the present time, there is enough uncertainty about whether Harvey
will actually be a tropical storm in 48 h that a watch is not
warranted.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 14.1N  70.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 14.3N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 14.6N  77.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 15.2N  80.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 16.0N  83.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 18.0N  89.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 96H  23/1800Z 19.0N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  24/1800Z 19.5N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017


000
FONT14 KNHC 192033
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017               
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   2(24)   X(24)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  20(26)   X(26)   X(26)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Tropical Depression Harvey Graphics


Tropical Depression Harvey 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 20:39:38 GMT


Tropical Depression Harvey 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 21:24:04 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192311
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kenneth, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)

...KENNETH IS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...
 As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 19
 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.9, -123.8
 with movement WNW at 18 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 6

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 192034
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...KENNETH IS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 123.8W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 123.8 West. Kenneth is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A
slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected over the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected, and
Kenneth is forecast to become a hurricane tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 192034
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  30SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.5N 125.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.1N 130.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.1N 131.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.8N 133.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.4N 134.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.1N 135.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 123.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 192035
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Kenneth is on a strengthening trend.  The cloud pattern of the
tropical storm consists of a central dense overcast and curved outer
bands, mostly on the south and west portions of the circulation.  A
partial SSMI/S overpass around 1500 UTC shows a mid-level eye
feature, but it also indicated that the system is still vertically
tilted from northeast to southwest, likely the result of
northeasterly shear.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB
and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are
unanimously 3.5/55 kt, and the initial wind speed is increased to
that value.

Kenneth is moving west-northwestward at 16 kt on the south
side of a narrow mid-level ridge.  A decrease in forward speed and a
turn to the northwest is expected during the next 2 to 3 days
while the storm moves toward the southwestern periphery of the
ridge.  Thereafter, an even slower motion toward the north-northwest
is forecast as Kenneth moves into a break in the ridge caused by a
large-scale trough off of the west coast of the United States.  The
track models have shifted a little to the south and west this cycle,
and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in those directions.

The environmental conditions appear generally favorable for Kenneth
to keep strengthening during the next 36 hours or so, and the system
is forecast to become a hurricane as early as tonight.  After
that time, SSTs fall below 26 deg C along the expected path of
Kenneth, and these cool waters combined with a drier air mass should
end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening.  An
increase in south-southwesterly shear in 4 to 5 days will also aid
in the weakening process.  The NHC intensity forecast is higher than
the previous one and is in best agreement with the IVCN and HCCA
consensus models.  This forecast also calls for Kenneth to become a
post-tropical cyclone by the end of the period when it will be over
SSTs near 22 deg C.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 15.9N 123.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 16.5N 125.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 18.1N 130.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 19.1N 131.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 21.8N 133.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 24.4N 134.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 27.1N 135.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 192034
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017               
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 125W       34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 130W       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
20N 130W       34  X   1( 1)  24(25)  24(49)   4(53)   X(53)   X(53)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  24(29)   3(32)   X(32)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  20(28)   5(33)
25N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
25N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
30N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
25N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics


Tropical Storm Kenneth 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 20:40:37 GMT


Tropical Storm Kenneth 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 21:30:48 GMT