Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261122
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 26 Jun 2017 15:22:14 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261121
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 26 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Dora, located a couple of hundred miles south of
Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Hurricane DORA (EP4/EP042017)

...DORA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Jun 26
 the center of DORA was located near 17.3, -106.3
 with movement WNW at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 985 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane DORA Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 261431
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
900 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

...DORA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 106.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 106.3 West.  Dora is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next
48 hours.  On the forecast track, the center of Dora will remain
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico today and pass well to
the south of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible today
before weakening begins by Tuesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 2
inches along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and
Michoacan through this evening.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the
coast of southwest Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the
southern Baja California peninsula on Tuesday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane DORA Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 26 2017  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 261431
TCMEP4

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042017
1500 UTC MON JUN 26 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.3W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.3W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.6N 109.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.1N 111.1W...NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.5N 112.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.2N 115.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.4N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 106.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane DORA Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 261432
TCDEP4

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
900 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Dora has continued to rapidly intensify with a 20-nmi-diameter,
cloud-filled eye now evident in visible satellite imagery.  The
upper-level outflow pattern remains quite impressive and continues
to expand in all quadrants.  Satellite intensity estimates are a
consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and T4.7/82 kt from CIMSS
ADT, which supports an initial intensity of 75 kt. Dora could be a
little stronger, but recent infrared imagery indicates that the
inner-core convection has eroded significantly since the 1200 UTC
fixes, so the initial intensity will remain on the low end of
estimates for this advisory.

Dora has been holding on a steady west-northwestward course or
295/11 kt for the past 12 hours. A strong deep-layer subtropical
ridge entrenched to the north of the hurricane is expected to keep
Dora moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next 3
days or so.  By 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to weaken
significantly and become a more vertically shallow system, steered
westward by the low-level trade wind flow until Dora dissipates by
day 5.  The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory track, and lies a little south of the
consensus track model TVCE out of respect for the more southerly
ECMWF solution.

Dora has about another 12 hours or so to strengthen.  However, the
rapid intensification event that the hurricane has undergone for the
past 30 hours has likely ended.  The aforementioned erosion of the
inner-core convection is possibly due to the entrainment of cooler
and more stable air into the western semicircle now that Dora is
beginning to encroach upon 26-deg C SSTs.  The vertical wind
shear is expected to remain low at less than 5 kt and the favorable
upper-level outflow pattern is forecast to persist for the next few
days as well.  The only hindering factor will be the decreasing
thermodynamics due to the hurricane moving over sub-26C SSTs within
12-18 hours. Steady weakening should begin by 24 h, but the rate of
the weakening trend should be lessened due to proximity to warmer
water just south of the path of Dora and the aforementioned
favorable dynamic conditions. The NHC official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus
model IVCN.

Although the center of Dora is forecast to remain well offshore, the
outer bands of the cyclone could bring brief locally heavy rainfall
to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico into this evening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 17.3N 106.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 17.9N 107.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 18.6N 109.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 19.1N 111.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND
 48H  28/1200Z 19.5N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 20.2N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  30/1200Z 20.4N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane DORA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 26 2017

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 261432
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042017               
1500 UTC MON JUN 26 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75   
KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                            
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
P VALLARTA     34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 110W       34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 110W       34  2  27(29)  27(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
20N 110W       50  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1  24(25)  59(84)   3(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   3( 3)  40(43)   6(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)  14(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)  11(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)  27(36)   1(37)   X(37)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Hurricane DORA Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Jun 2017 14:35:27 GMT



 
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Jun 2017 15:22:02 GMT