Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130500
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 13 Jul 2020 05:33:32 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122329
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Cristina, located about 1000 miles west of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure 
system located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico have changed little in organization during the 
past several hours.  Environmental conditions are forecast to 
gradually become more favorable for development during the next 
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the 
system moves quickly west-northwestward to westward, well south of 
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina (EP5/EP052020)

...CRISTINA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...
 As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 12
 the center of Cristina was located near 20.7, -126.5
 with movement W at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Public Advisory Number 26

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 130239
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020
 
...CRISTINA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 126.5W
ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Cristina was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 126.5 West.
Cristina is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next two or three days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated and the remnant low will likely
dissipate in a few days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane 
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low 
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and 
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 26

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 13 2020  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 130238
TCMEP5
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020
0300 UTC MON JUL 13 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 126.5W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 126.5W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 125.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.0N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.5N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.0N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.6N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.9N 139.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 126.5W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW 
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 26

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 130239
TCDEP5
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020
 
Cristina has lacked deep convection for more than 12 hours and is 
now a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The system has therefore 
become a remnant low and this is the last NHC advisory. The 
estimated intensity is 30 kt, assuming some spin down has occurred 
since the last advisory.
 
Cristina is moving westward near 10 kt, and low-level easterly flow 
should steer the remnant low on this general heading for the next 
few days. The cyclone is moving over sea surface temperatures of 
about 23 deg C that will prevent the redevelopment of organized 
convection. Cristina should continue to gradually spin down during 
the next 2-3 days until it opens into a trough and dissipates.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0300Z 20.7N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  13/1200Z 21.0N 128.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  14/0000Z 21.5N 130.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/1200Z 22.0N 133.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/0000Z 22.6N 136.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  15/1200Z 22.9N 139.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 13 2020

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 130239
PWSEP5
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  26  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020               
0300 UTC MON JUL 13 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 130W       34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2020 02:41:26 GMT



 
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2020 03:24:36 GMT